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☆ A top economist breaks down why he's forecasting a 50% chance of recession next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In a wide-ranging conversation, Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi broke down his US recession forecast and how a looming housing correction differs from 2008. The way Mark Zandi sees it, the US is facing a 50% chance of a recession next year, but his baseline forecast actually sounds more optimistic than those odds. "I expect prices to be down 10% peak to trough, with no recession," he said. Bank of America analysts shared one area of the bond market that's set to deliver 13% returns in 2023. A recession presents an opportunity to build wealth as a real estate investor, Mike Zuber explained.

☆ The US is sending 40 more boats to join Ukraine's growing 'river navy'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Peter Suciu | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US is sending Ukraine more riverine patrol boats in an aid package announced this month. The 40 boats in the latest package will join the 18 boats that the US supplied to Kyiv in June. The aid assistance package hasn't detailed the type of riverine boats that will be sent, but six from the previous batch were made by Louisiana-based Metal Shark. Those are now reportedly operating in the Black Sea. Ukraine defiantThe US supplied 10 34-foot Dauntless Sea Ark patrol boats, like those seen above, to Ukraine in June.

☆ Ukrainian suicide drone boats packed with bombs are threatening Russia's once feared Black Sea fleet, and it may not be able to stop them
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Charles R. Davis | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Ukraine last week appeared to attack Russia's Black Sea Fleet using a swarm of naval and aerial drones. Russia labeled the attack a "terrorist act" and briefly suspended a deal on grain shipments. Experts told Insider the attack demonstrates that nowhere is safe for Russia's naval assets. Russia has not, to date, taken such steps to protect its Black Sea Fleet, a force which has participated in the missile barrages of Ukraine and lost its flagship in another stunning Ukrainian attack. Nothing powered by a jet ski engine is going to be able to match the speed and range of a Russian ship at sea; when Ukraine sunk the cruiser Moskva, the former flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, it did so with a cruise missile.

☆ Tinkov renounces citizenship of 'fascist' Russia over Ukraine war
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

Serial entrepreneur Oleg Tinkov has renounced his Russian citizenship, saying he does not want to be associated with “fascism” or people who collaborate with “killers.”In an Instagram post published on Tuesday, the 54-year-old founder of Tinkoff Bank wrote: “I decided to renounce my Russian citizenship after Russia invasion of independent Ukraine. He was forced to sell his 35% stake in TCS, Tinkoff Bank’s parent, to Russian metals magnate Vladimir Potanin in April, following a string of anti-war comments. “I hate when my brand/name is associated with the bank that collaborates with killers and blood.”Oleg Tinkov. Before he sold his stake, Britain imposed sanctions on Tinkov, saying he was “receiving benefits from the Russian government” through his stake in a systemically important company. Tinkoff previously held U.S. citizenship, but renounced that around the time Tinkoff Bank went public in 2013 in what Washington said was an attempt to avoid tax liabilities.

☆ Russian-installed authorities order evacuation of Kherson in face of Ukrainian counteroffensive
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-22 | by ( Hyder Abbasi | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

Russian-installed authorities in the occupied city of Kherson on Saturday urged residents to leave immediately in the face of a looming counteroffensive by Ukraine’s armed forces that aimed to recapture the southern city. Ukrainian forces bombarded Russian positions and targeted supply routes across the province on Friday, inching closer to a full assault on the only provincial capital that has remained in Russian hands throughout the war. The Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant on the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast, Ukraine. Infrastructure in the southern city of Odesa had also been hit, he said. Iran sent trainers and technical support to enable Russian forces to use Iranian-made drones “with better lethality,” John Kirby, White House National Security Council spokesperson, told reporters.

☆ Russia's neighbor considers asylum for draft dodgers who can prove they were conscripted, but not young men afraid of being called up
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Sinéad Baker | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Russia's European neighbors say they will not take in Russians fleeing mobilization. But Latvia has told Insider it will consider giving asylum to men who can prove they've been drafted. Russia's European neighbors have largely rejected the idea that they would let in Russians fleeing out of fear that they will be sent to Ukraine. Pabriks echoed the reasoning given by Russia's other neighbors for not taking in fleeing Russians. Latvia's foreign ministry took a more cautious tone on Russians fleeing mobilization.

The main challenge the Russian military faces after almost seven months at war looks likely to remain a basic one: manpower. Russia had about 1 million active personnel at the start, according to the institute’s estimates, though it did not dedicate all its troops to Ukraine. Both of these have made it hard to identify how the new additions to the Russian military could be trained or used effectively in this war. ‘New territory takes time’The “partial mobilization” comes after Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive broke through Russian lines outside Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second most populous city. The military support of mobilization and the veneer of territorial security that annexation could provide will likely take a while, however.

CNN —Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the immediate “partial mobilization” of Russian citizens on Wednesday, a move that threatens to escalate his faltering invasion of Ukraine following a string of defeats that caused recriminations in Moscow. US President Joe Biden condemned the mobilization and the Kremlin’s planned votes, during his speech to the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday. “Putin claims he had to act because Russia was threatened, but no one threatened Russia – and no one other than Russia sought conflict,” Biden added. A billboard promoting contract army service, with the slogan "Serving Russia is a real job," in St. Petersburg. On Tuesday, Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, amended the law on military service, toughening the punishment for violation of military service duties – such as desertion and evasion from service – according to state news agency TASS.

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